Ukrainian Poultry Consumption & Export 2018

Report Highlights: The political and economic turbulences of recent years resulted in notable decrease in domestic red meat demand. Consumers turned toward cheaper poultry products. Live cattle exports skyrocketed and will grow in 2018. Beef exports will remain significant, but flat due to lack of export capacity and competition with live cattle exports. Pork imports resumed in late 2017 due to slow demand recovery, but are expected to remain low in 2018. Ukraine is likely to see an insignificant decrease to its cattle herd numbers. Swine inventory is likely to recover toward the year-end of 2018. Pork production will be low due to the low animal inventory in 2017.

Exports of meat and meat products during the 5 months of the current year amounted to 154 ths. Tons (plus 50% by January-May 2016 year), imports - 71 ths. Tons (plus 11%).

This is reported by the press service of the Economic Discussion Club. Transmits Agriver.

The share of poultry meat in total exports was 80% (124 thousand tons, or 42% more than a year earlier). The highest demand is Ukrainian poultry in Ts. The river was used in Egypt, the Netherlands, OAU, Azerbaijan.

The demand for the external market for beef and pork, whose exports in January-May of this year grew, grew. Р exceeded last year more than in 2 times. The largest volumes of this Ukrainian product came to the countries of the former USSR - Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Moldova.

In January-May, 22 tons of beef were exported, accounting for 18% of its domestic production, and 6 thousand tons of pork (about 2% of production).

Meat imports, as in previous periods, are mainly represented by pork and poultry meat. At the same time, imports of poultry in January-May. The pH increased by 47%, and the pork decreased by 15%. Imported meat products, mainly from Poland and Germany. The share of imports in domestic food consumption in January-May 2017 year was 8,0%.

According to balance calculations, for 5 months, th. Compared to the corresponding period of 2016, the filling of the domestic market of meat and meat products is almost 5% lower than a year earlier (beef - minus 3,8%, pork - minus 5,3%, poultry meat - « Minus »5,3%).

Accordingly, the average per capita consumption of meat and meat products is less than last year's by 4,4% or 1 kg and totaled 5 kg per person per 20,5 months.

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s red meat production remained depressed in recent years. Economic and political turmoil in the country resulted in a notable drop in disposable incomes. Consumers reduced consumption of beef and pork, switching to inexpensive domestically produced poultry, even cheaper imported poultry offal. Ukrainian livestock producers reacted by reducing production. Although demand rebounded somewhat in 2017, the industry was slow to recover due to the nature of its long production cycles and inability to react quickly. Ukrainian pork producers also lost many of their foreign markets. Russia shut down all pork imports from Ukraine from the beginning of 2016. Access to other markets became restricted due to the quick spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) and multiple outbreaks in the country. Georgia (also impacted by ASF) remained the major export destination for Ukrainian pigs and pork. Due to significant sow number contraction in 2017, the industry was not able to increase production when demand returned and prices rebounded toward the 2017 year-end. That situation led to some imports. However, the industry is likely to regain momentum toward the 2018 year-end. The import forecast for 2018 was reduced significantly to reflect the expected recovery and still weak domestic demand. Pork production in 2018 will remain low due to low sow numbers in 2017 and the lower pig inventory in early 2018. Ukrainian beef production suffered less due to availability of stable international demand. The Russian market loss impact was negligible. Higher milk prices had some positive impact on the animal retention rate in 2017. Ukraine also developed significant foreign markets for live cattle for slaughter. Exports grew and are expected to continue growing in 2018. Azerbaijan and North Africa will remain the top export destinations for live cattle. Only marginal corrections to PSD tables were made to reflect official statistics. PSD Calculations Notes Ukraine discontinued its animal slaughter number publication in 2016. Although this indicator is expected to be restored in 2018, the 2016/17 indicators were reconstructed from the official meat production and official slaughter weights. Due to changes to its data collection system, the Ukrainian State Statistics Service did not publish many 2017 indicators by the time this report was compiled. Projections and reconstruction were used wherever possible. Production Swine/Pork The swine animal number was in decline in 2016-17, but is expected to stabilize in 2018. Significant numbers of non-specialized pig farms went out of business as they were unable to make a profit. Some production recovery was noted in late 2017 when larger swine producers began increasing sow numbers in response to price growth and recovering domestic demand for pork. The production crisis resulted in a larger, more resilient and more specialized industry. Hog slaughter and pork production will remain low in 2018. Low pig inventories will not allow for